By SCOTT DEWING
Published: January 2004

“Where’s my damned jetpack?” That’s the idea a colleague of mine had for T-shirts, bumper-stickers and other assorted attention-getting accoutrements that he came up with in 2000, which was the year we were all supposed to trade in our cumbersome cars for flashy, high-tech jetpacks.

At least that’s what the harebrained, future-predicting hacks of the 20th century had been promising would be the preferred mode of transportation come the year 2000 with us all zooming through the 21st century with these personal flying machines strapped to our backs. But as we tumble into 2004, the consumer penchant is clearly for gas-guzzling 6,000 pound SUVs, congested freeways and long, road-rage-inducing commutes.

Where’s my damned jetpack? Indeed.

Against my better judgment, I’m going to make some technology predictions for 2004 that will likely come back to haunt me in all their stupidity and short-sightedness. But with a bit of reckless abandon and some Buzz Lightyear bravado, I’m strapping on my jetpack nonetheless and rocketing into the future declaring, “To infinity and beyond!”

And with that, here are my tenuous technology predictions for 2004:

• Microsoft will introduce a new operating system that will promise “new methods of storing files, tighter links to the Internet, greater security, and fewer annoying reboots.”
• This new operating system will result in file-incompatibility with other operating systems, require the use of Internet Explorer, pose a greater security risk, and be plagued with annoying reboots due to the number of special service packs and security updates that will need to be installed on a regular basis.
• President Bush will be re-elected for a second term and the war on ______ism will continue with full fury (fill in the blank with any “ism” you prefer: “terrorism”, “communism”, “consumerism”, “baptism”, etc.)
• Electronic surveillance of U.S. citizens and foreigners alike will be stepped up and more personal data will be gathered than at any time in history because in the end we’re all possible ______ists (again, fill in the blank with any “ists” you prefer: “terrorists”, “communists”, “consumerists”, “Baptists”, etc.)
• All of this personal data will be stored in databases on government computer systems.
• The U.S. Government will continue to have some of the most unsecure computer systems in the world.
• Hacking/cracking incidents will continue to rise as will the stakes of the data and systems that get compromised.
• Intel will continue to propagate the “wireless anywhere” myth with more stupid Centrino ads showing mountain climbers at a base-camp on Mt. Everest checking email and sending pictures to loved ones.
• Most computer users will finally understand that having a wireless card in their laptop (or Intel’s Centrino wireless chip) DOES NOT mean that they can get Internet access at anytime from anywhere in the world. Anyone left believing in the marketing-hype can and should go climb a mountain and freeze their cajones off while trying to connect to the Internet.
• Staying in pace with Moore’s Law, which states that the number of transistors per square inch on an integrated circuit doubles every 18 months, 4GHz processors will become readily available.
• The price of computers will continue to go down.
• The quality of computers will continue to go down.
• This trend of low price and low quality will accelerate the pace of computer replacement.
• 300 million computers will become obsolete in 2004.
• Continued anti-piracy efforts by Microsoft will decrease the amount of software piracy.
• The cost of Microsoft software will continue to increase.
• Software piracy will continue to be pointed to as the primary reason for rising software prices.
• Bill Gates’ net worth will be greater than most countries’ GDP. He will, in fact, buy a small country, an island that he will name the “Isle of Gates”.
• File-trading of music will continue to proliferate.
• The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) will continue to whine and pursue Gestapo-like tactics, such as destroying offenders’ personal computers, in its declared war on “file-traderism”.
• Even though the RIAA will claim that illegal file-trading of music will cost the industry an estimated $1 billion in 2004, they’ll somehow scrape together enough cash to pursue and file a lawsuit against every suspected file-trader on the planet.
• America Online (AOL) will launch its own version of the Internet. It’ll be much slower, less useful and more expensive than the real Internet, but will have lots of super-cool, animated graphics that will make AOL users feel special.
• Regardless of the passage of any state or federal anti-spam legislation, the amount of spam clogging up the Internet (and your inbox) will continue to grow.
• Regardless of the big promises of one of the most common type of spam emails—penis enlargement—the average penis size will remain steady at 5.9 inches.
• The number of computer viruses “in the wild” (that is, circulating on the Internet) will double.
• The majority of end-users and systems administrators will continue to be lax about protecting against viral infection.
• A large-scale viral outbreak will seriously cripple the Internet for 24-72 hours. This virus will combine easy replication with a destructive payload.
• Microsoft will be named in a class-action lawsuit regarding the inherent lack of security in its desktop and network operating systems.
• Meanwhile, Ford will debut it’s new SUV, The Destroyer. It will weigh more than 5 tons, have an onboard Road-rage Advanced Defense Intercept Calculator (or RADICal), a custom Venti-sized latte holder and seating for 12. Parking will no longer be a problem as The Destroyer will easily be able to park on top of a Honda Accord or equivalent small-sized vehicle.
• And last but not least: sorry, no jetpacks. Maybe next year.